The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts GDP growth of 4-5% in 2019-2020

Doing business in Ukraine: National Bank of Ukraine forecasts GDP growth of 4-5%

This article discusses the forecast of the #National Bank of Ukraine regarding growth of #Ukrainian economy in 2019-2020 as well as the #report of the #Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine in which it specifies the #key #features for #social and #economic #development in Ukraine for 2017-2018.

Visit our website if you are interested in the #Ukrainian_economy or #doing_business in Ukraine.

The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts Ukrainian GDP growth of 4-5% for 2019-2020. According to the prognosis, the inflation rate will be 5%, while the discounted rate of the National Bank of Ukraine will amount to 6-7%.

We note that earlier the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine introduced its programme for economic and social development of Ukraine for 2017-18 as well as the key indicators of the Ukrainian economy. The Government developed this programme in close cooperation with the International Monetary Fund. The programme also provides for two possible scenarios: positive and negative.

Thus, pursuant to the programme, the nominal GDP of Ukraine in 2017 will amount UAH 2.6 trillion with increase of real GDP of 3%. Under the positive scenario inflation in Ukraine will amount to 8.1%, under negative scenario inflation will be 10.3%. In 2018 and 2019 Ukrainian GDP will grow, depending on the type of economic scenario, by 2-4%.

In 2017 the Government of Ukraine expects foreign direct investment in the amount of USD 4.5 billion. In addition, wages in Ukraine will grow by at least 5.4% and unemployment rate will decrease to 8.7%.

We also note that the World Bank recently issued its forecast for the Ukrainian economy. Under the report, the Ukrainian economy will grow by 1% in 2016 and by 2-3% in 2017 and 2018. The World Bank pointed out that the key factors for gradual increase of the Ukrainian economy will be successful implementation of the announced reforms, combating corruption, cooperation with the International Monetary Fund and strengthening of business cooperation with the EU member states.

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